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Back in January, amid Donald Trump’s campaign vows to resolve the war in Ukraine in under 24 hours” remaining vivid in minds, there was real concern in the Russian capital over the US leader’s intentions. When Mr. Trump suggested that significant levels of Tariffs, Tariffs, and Restrictions” on Russia might be necessary, one well-known pro-war Russian commentator remarked: “It is better to get ready for the worst. Before long, we’ll reflect on Biden’s term with nostalgia, like a warm period.”

Empty Warnings and Missed Chances

Just how mistaken was that view? From then, the American leader has repeatedly spoken a big game without coming close to following the walk. In May, after Vladimir Putin turned down a month-long ceasefire, and peace talks in Turkey stalled, a devastating” US sanctions package did not to appear. An 8 August deadline for Mr Putin to agree to a halt in fighting somehow morphed into a lavish welcome in Alaska, where Mr Trump praised a leader sought for atrocities as he stepped off from his plane. The serious consequences” threatened by Mr Trump if the Alaska talks failed to peace never happened.

Emboldened Actions and Western Vulnerabilities

Empowered, Mr Putin has accordingly persisted to pursue his war objectives in Ukraine, and probe for Nato weaknesses. The previous week’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish territory exposed inadequate Nato planning, as F-35 and F-16 fighter jets were hastily scrambled to counter cheap suicide devices that cost around $ten thousand each to produce. It also sent a message of possible intensification in the event of any future “deterrence force” deploying European troops on Ukrainian soil. Such challenge called for a strong and coordinated response, exerting the kind of pressure on the Kremlin which Mr Trump has to date refused to consider. Instead the US president seems, once again, to prefer bullying his European allies to confronting Mr Putin. In a statement which smacked of insincerity, Mr Trump stated over the weekend that the US was “prepared” to impose stricter sanctions on Russia, but only if certain unlikely conditions were met.

Impractical Requirements and Economic Leverage

Eyeing a considerable economic gain, Washington is insisting that the EU must boost its imports of US liquified natural gas at a rate that analysts consider undoable. Other stipulations include the application by the EU of 50%-100% tariffs on Russia’s most important ally, China, and an end to all imports of Russian oil by Nato members. This includes Turkey, which has refused to sanction Moscow, imports 57% of its oil from Russia, and lies outside the EU.

Observers looking on the positive side in Brussels believe that Mr Trump’s pressure may persuade pro-Trump governments in Hungary and Slovakia to end their deep dependence on Russian energy imports. That is highly unlikely to happen, as Mr Trump and his advisers must know. Nor can the EU afford to risk the kind of economic response from Beijing that caused Mr Trump himself to retreat from a full-blown trade war not long ago.

Ominous Developments and Lack of Movement

Throughout this week’s state visit, it will be Sir Keir Starmer’s turn to try to pin Mr Trump down on decisive action. But from the fruitless Alaska talks to his latest diversionary tactics with the EU, Mr Trump keeps finding reasons not to get tough on Russia. Last week’s drone incursion in Poland represented an ominous raising of the ante. Ukraine’s prospects, and wider European security interests, are being gradually undermined by a president who, in this context, threatens but never acts.